Did the new carmaker start shuffling? 2018 focuses on six hot spots in the automotive industry

Figure / China Automotive News Network

1. Will there be bright spots in the slower growth of the auto market?

An Qingheng: own brand will be the biggest bright spot

Wang Qing: The segment market will become the biggest bright spot

Cui Dongshu: Independent high-end will become the biggest bright spot

Based on the slowdown in the growth rate of the entire automobile market in 2017, experts did not give too high expectations for the growth rate of automobile production and sales in 2018. Then, in the unfavorable automobile market environment, are there still some new bright spots worth looking forward to?

“The development of self-owned brand cars will be the biggest bright spot in the Chinese auto market in 2018.” An Qingheng, director of the China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China Automotive News that after 2017's development, independent brands will occupy the entire market. With the increase of the rate and the improvement of the technical level, the leading positions of Geely, SAIC, GAC and the Great Wall have also taken shape. In 2018, independent brands must continue to develop. This is a major highlight of the automotive market. At the same time, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and the vigorous development of new car-building forces will all dress up the Chinese auto market in 2018.

“Subdivided market may experience more changes.” Wang Qing, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicts that changes in market segments may be the biggest bright spot for the auto market in 2018. According to Wang Qing, with the development of self-owned brands, some niche products may have bright spots, just like the development of SUVs, because Chinese brands' breakthroughs in products and technologies in this field will promote the development of the industry. "This change does not mean a surge in the proportion or quantity, but a breakthrough in product content," Wang Qing said. He also pointed out that if the relocation restriction policy is lifted, the development of used cars will become a major highlight of the Chinese automobile market. "The used car market and the new car market have a strong linkage, and with the entry of capital, the growth rate of the used car market will also continue to accelerate." Wang Qing believes that once the huge used car market becomes active, it will serve the Chinese car market. Infused with a powerful vitality factor.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the national passenger car market joint conference, believes that in 2018, new energy vehicles may continue to maintain a growth rate of 30% to 50%, and self-owned brand high-end will continue to break through. This will be the biggest highlight of the auto market. “In terms of new energy vehicles, as the technology matures and models are launched, new energy vehicle models will continue to be enriched, which will accelerate the development of new energy vehicles; the wave of SUV upgrades will continue in 2018, which will drive its own brands. The high-end development.” Cui Dongshu believes that in the high-quality growth phase, the continuous improvement of self-owned brand technology and brand will be the biggest highlight of the 2018 auto market.

Is 2.2018 the first year of a new energy vehicle?

An Qingheng: It will not be a year of new energy vehicles

Wu Songquan: It is a Year of Prosperity and Development of New Energy Vehicles

Cui Dongshu: It is a Year of Difficult Development of New Energy Vehicles

For the development of new energy vehicles, there are analysis saying: 2016 adjustment, 2017 recovery, 2018 outbreak. In 2016, as the problem of fraudulent supplementation began to adjust, new energy vehicles that had suffered heavy losses in 2017 began to recover. In 2018, under the support of a series of favorable factors, will new energy vehicles usher in an outbreak?

"I don't think that 2018 is the first year of new energy vehicles." Although An Qingheng predicts that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed one million in 2018, he still does not think this will be an outbreak of new energy vehicles. “For many self-owned brand companies, how much market share can they seize and whether they can gain a firm foothold before foreign capital can aggressively attack the domestic new energy automobile market is the prerequisite for the next step in the development of the industry.” An Qingheng believes that new energy sources in 2018 The macro-environment of the automotive sector is still constantly adjusted, including the subsidy policy, the "double-integration" policy, and so on, which put forward many new propositions and major challenges for the market competition of enterprises. It must be guided by the needs of the market and do a long-term plan that can be recognized and accepted by consumers without assistance, so as to guide technology research and development, product planning, production capacity distribution, and business model innovation.

Wang Qing, who holds the same viewpoint, emphasized that judging whether new energy vehicles will enter the market in the first year of the year depends on whether it can sustain rapid growth. At present, China's new energy vehicle market lacks strong market momentum, so the market The development still needs to be nurtured. "In order to develop in a market, the vehicle itself must solve the continuation mileage, safety and other constraints, rather than just rely on factors such as policies, licenses or time-sharing leases to support the market. From this perspective, talk about the outbreak of new energy vehicles. The first year is too early," said Wang Qing.

However, Wu Songquan, chief expert of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center and director of the Policy Research Center, believes that in 2018, the new energy automobile industry will usher in a year of prosperity and development. He pointed out that there are two points worth paying attention to. First, it can be predicted that in 2018, domestic and foreign enterprises (including large state-owned enterprises and joint ventures) will conduct a full-scale layout around new energy vehicles and boost the expansion of production and sales of new energy vehicles. Second, new manufacturing companies, including Weilai, officially entered the domestic market for new energy vehicles. “It can be foreseen that its brand new product design concept, new marketing and service model, better user experience, competitive mechanism and culture will bring great impact to the industry. This will help new domestic energy sources. The competition and prosperity of the automotive market are conducive to accelerating the electrification process.” Wu Songquan believes that under the “dual-integration” policy requirements, companies will do everything possible to expand the market size of new energy vehicles, which means comprehensive innovation and full market development arrival. In addition, Wu Songquan believes that in order to expand the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles, companies may also vigorously develop low-cost models to expand sales; some companies may not meet the average fuel consumption, but also may produce more new energy vehicles to meet the average enterprise fuel. Consumption requirements are met, so for enterprises, the development of new energy vehicles is a strategic arrangement for long-term development, but there will be multiple considerations in the near future. In order to achieve sustainable development in the Chinese market, we must do everything possible to meet the conditions, and this will In the new energy automobile market in 2018, it has appeared.

Contrary to Wu Songquan's view, Cui Dongshu believes that 2018 is a difficult year for new energy vehicles. He believes that in the 2018 year when the subsidy may drastically decline and the “double-integration” policy has not entered the evaluation period, the new energy auto market will be difficult to develop and the market performance may not be so good-looking. "In the new energy car price is not fully competitive, the policy is still the main promoter of the new energy vehicle market, from the current point of view, 2018 will be the shift period for the development of new energy vehicles." Cui Dongshu said.

Does the 3.2018 level of intelligence increase significantly?

Cui Dongshu: The level of intelligence has greatly improved

Wu Songquan: The Key Year of Intelligent Connection

In 2017, Intelligent Network Alliance ushered in a variety of favorable policies, one after another news of car companies and Internet companies holding hands from time to time came, Intelligent Networking has also become the major car companies to promote the keywords on different occasions. In 2018, will smart network technology achieve rapid progress?

"Beginning in 2017, car companies continue to affix smart network-linked labels to new models, but from the consumer experience, the smart features of vehicles are far from the intelligence of smart phones. With the improvement of technology, 2018 The level of intelligence in the second half of the year or 2019 is likely to increase significantly.” Cui Dongshu believes that the intelligentization of vehicles in 2018 will usher in a year of improvement, but whether or not there will be substantial improvements will depend on the R&D and investment of enterprise technology. Although vehicle manufacturers such as Weilai Motor have introduced high-end intelligent vehicles, they are privately-ordered and are still a long way from ordinary mass consumption. The key to improving the level of intelligence depends on the mass consumer market. According to Cui Dongshu, at present, there is still a certain distance between the concept of smart vehicles and their practicality.

Wu Songquan judged that in 2018, the automotive industry will not experience a significant increase in the level of intelligence, but will become the automotive industry's accumulation of power in the area of ​​intelligent grid-linked autos' highly automated driving (L4) and above, and deep plowing in some areas of automated driving (L2). A year of ecological construction exploration in the smart travel industry. “First of all, 2018 is the year in which the automotive industry has accumulated momentum and heightened momentum in the field of highly automated and fully automated driving. Second, 2018 is also a year in which intelligent network-linked vehicles have been cultivating and advancing in the L2 industry. Finally, 2018 is a year of industrial ecology exploration and market cultivation.” Wu Songquan said that for intelligentization, 2018 will be an ordinary and critical year. The common place is that in 2018, it is an ordinary year in the development process of the intelligent networked vehicles. The key point is that the intelligent networked vehicles will accumulate energy in 2018 and obtain a solid foundation for development.

An Qingheng emphasized that the improvement of the level of intelligence is a gradual process. It requires the industry to have an overall strategic design. It requires companies to start from the basics, continuously improve their own standards, and also require the support of relevant basic components and the external environment. All companies need to formulate a reasonable implementation plan, determine practical goals, and make their own characteristics. They should not be too hasty and cannot engage in formalism. Wang Qing also believes that the current level of intelligence in vehicles is mainly reflected in two aspects. One is the intelligence level of the vehicle itself, and the other is the part of networking, that is, planning, laws and regulations, social environment, and infrastructure. "The intelligence level of the vehicle itself is a long-term development process and requires a little accumulation by the company," said Wang Qing.

4. Does the new carmaker start shuffling?

An Qingheng: Who will go and who will stay 2018

Cui Dongshu: New carmakers struggle

Wu Songquan: 2020 enters the reshuffle period

New car companies began to "hand in". At the end of 2017, new products were launched on the market, and listing also meant that it would soon be tested by the market. In 2018, new car manufacturers in the market under the inspection who will go to see who can stay to see a clue, this year, the new car companies will enter the reshuffle period?

"The year 2018 will be a year in which the competition for new carmakers will intensify." "The battle for new vehicles will be the status of new carmakers in 2018." For new car manufacturers, experts believe that 2018 is a critical year, and perhaps a turning point. .

In the view of Cui Dongshu, at present, new car manufacturers have successively introduced models to the market, but whether they can gain market recognition requires an observation period. During this period, the capital of all parties will continue to support the competition. The 2018 will be such a state of development, but it is still too early to talk about shuffling. Wang Qing also stated that 2018 will be a year when the new construction vehicle is becoming more active. With the support of capital, the market activity of new construction vehicles will continue to increase. Some companies that have entered this field will accelerate the pace of marketization, and will also accelerate the pace of marketization. Some companies seek to enter the market, which will increase the active level of the industry. This active market-oriented competition is still in its infancy. It is still early to reshuffle in 2018.

An Qingheng believes that the products of new car manufacturers will be listed in succession in 2018, and the active capital market will return to rationality. Which new car manufacturer can succeed and which one will be eliminated will start to become clear in 2018. With the new car-building forces entering the “operational operation”, whether these variously attractive concepts will be accepted by the market will usher in the 2018 exam. However, since it is still at the beginning of the market for results, and with the support of capital, 2018 will be a year of vigorous development of new construction vehicles, or it will not enter the reshuffle adjustment stage so quickly.

In Wu Songquan's view, only 15 of the 15 enterprises that have obtained qualifications are listed on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 10 are still in the construction phase. In 2018, some companies will launch new vehicles and formally join the new energy vehicle market. Other companies, such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weima, etc., will also adopt various methods to achieve the market. In addition, major joint ventures and independent companies are also actively deploying the new energy automotive industry. As market players continue to increase, competition in 2018 will surely become more intense. At the same time, because the market will continue to maintain rapid growth and is still far from the stage of large-scale survival of the fittest, Wu Songquan believes that the market will enter the reshuffle period in 2020 or even later.

5. Can SOE reform have substantial results?

Wu Songquan: The pace of reform of state-owned enterprises has accelerated

Cui Dongshu: Merger and reorganization is the focus

Wang Qing: Emphasizing Authorized Management and Incentive Mechanism

In 2017, the reform of state-owned enterprises in the automotive industry was unprecedented. Dongfeng personnel adjustment lasted for one year; the Corps Group exchanged with FAW leaders; Dongfeng, Chang'an, and FAW three central SOEs established strategic alliances; and corporate restructuring continued to advance. In 2018, can this series of reforms show substantial results?

Wu Songquan believes that the sign of a decisive achievement in the reform of state-owned enterprises is the formation of a corporate property right structure and governance structure that are suitable for market competition, and the establishment of a competitive mechanism and culture. The company has made significant progress in its own brand building and its market position has risen dramatically. These problems may not be completely resolved in 2018, but the pace of reform of state-owned enterprises will continue to advance in 2018.

According to Cui Dongshu, whether the SOE reforms in 2018 can have substantial results depends on the integration of resources, including whether SOEs can successfully dives off non-core businesses and non-performing assets and allow the main business to develop better. From the current perspective, mergers and reorganizations will be the focus of the 2018 reform of automobile state-owned enterprises. "Taking Chery as an example, Kaiyi and Kuanzhi projects have found better capital support, which can be described as a successful move in Chery's reform process. It is the best choice for Chery, Kaiyi and Guanzhi." Choi Dong-shu Say.

However, reform is a long-term project and cannot be accomplished overnight. "The reform of state-owned enterprises is a complex task that needs long-term and continuous progress. It is difficult to achieve results overnight. At the moment, deep-level reforms are not enough. There is still a lot of work to be done to change mechanisms and systems." Wang Qing believes that authorized operations and incentives The mechanism has become the key to determining whether the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2018 will be effective. Only when the incentive mechanism is effective and the operating mechanism is invigorated can the auto state-owned enterprises be revitalized.

An Qingheng suggested that state-owned enterprises continue to learn from private enterprises. He said that private enterprises such as Geely and Great Wall are ahead of many state-owned enterprises in terms of development. Where do the gaps need to be studied further? "State-owned enterprises are not sure of their problems. SAIC, Guangzhou Automobile and Changan have also developed well. Where are the gaps between each other? What should be the next step? Can we discuss the discussions widely?" An Qingheng said.

6. Can independent high-end brands withstand the market inspection?

An Qingheng: Success or failure in 2018

Cui Dongshu: There are internal and external conditions for successful breakthrough

Wang Qing: The key also depends on technology and brand

In 2017, the high-end trend of independent brands was obvious. Great Wall high-end brand WAY VV7 VV5 listed, the market responded well; not long ago, Geely take the lead 01 listed, much consumer attention; Chuanqi successively launched high-end models GS8, GA8, GM8, high-end strategy officially landed; Chery unveiled at the Frankfurt Motor Show The new high-end product series Exeed, the main luxury style. In 2018, can these high-end brands withstand the test of the market?

“In 2018, the high-end brand will receive more support from the national level, which will accelerate the pace of its high-end.” Cui Dongshu believes that the high-end of its own brand comes from the intelligent, networked, electric, energy-saving Support in the aspect of chemistry, and in this respect China can provide strong technical and social application support. In addition, the independent brand itself already has a certain amount of technology and strength, there is no lack of capital support, coupled with certain market-based operating experience, the high-end of the independent brand is likely to succeed in this round of upward breakthrough.

An Qingheng is full of expectation and confidence in the high-end development of self-owned brands. He said: “Whether the new high-end self-owned brands in the new era, new markets, and new phases of the lead, WEY, etc., will be successful will be given conclusions in the market in 2018, expecting They are able to highlight and promote the overall development of independent brands. I think the chance of success is great."

“The key to the success of high-end independent brands depends on the technology and brand.” Wang Qing said that in view of the current market status, the Great Wall launched a higher-end WAY on the basis of years of development. Geely used its cooperation with Volvo to launch collars. Roewe's products are also continuously seeking breakthroughs. These brands have initially possessed technology and brand strength, but high-end brands have to withstand the test of the market. This is also a test of corporate strength and sustainable development. This is the high-end of this round of independent brands. The key to success can be achieved.

What needs attention is that in this round of high-end development of independent brands, although almost all independent brands have played the concept of high-end, but not all companies and brands have the strength of high-end. In this round of upward breakout, there may be polarization, some brands may be able to break through successfully, and some brands may encounter Waterloo because of lack of sufficient product capabilities. However, upward breakout is an inevitable choice for the long-term development of self-owned brands. , need to persist for a long time.