The trend of rising diesel prices is a challenge to the automotive industry and it is an opportunity

According to the statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, SUV models have seen a “blowout” market since last year, and sales have increased by about 50%. The diesel SUV, as a model of fuel economy, high-efficiency and environmental protection, has undergone years of technological development and improvement in China, and its related technologies have been at a very high level.

However, after the “diesel shortage” originating from the South China Market spilled over to Shanghai and Shanghai, some gas stations in the city experienced a tight supply of diesel and queued up restrictions, the potential purchasers of a batch of diesel SUVs in Shanghai started to deter. Many sellers of diesel SUVs in Shanghai have stated that the recent storm of diesel supply has a great impact on their sales. “Sales have fallen by at least 2/3,” said the head of the 4S store marketing department of a certain brand of SUV.

Recognized trend

On March 24, CNPC and Sinopec also responded to a reporter’s question and stated on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission that “the current domestic refined oil resources are sufficient to ensure a stable supply of the domestic refined oil market” and that they will “maintain domestic finished products”. Oil market prices are stable."

According to a survey conducted by the Oriental Oil and Gas Network in East China, South China, North China and Southwest China, the prices of gasoline and diesel have risen sharply since mid-March, and the price of gasoline has risen from RMB 150 to RMB 250 per ton. Diesel prices have also been driven by gasoline prices. There has been a rise of 500 yuan to 1,000 yuan per ton. The industry believes that the reasons for the increase in prices of gasoline and diesel in this round are driven by many factors.

The current high international oil price is one of the most important reasons. The international oil price once broke the $110/barrel mark, while the domestic retail price was only equivalent to the level of $65/barrel. As a result, the production enterprises suffered a loss in processing, local refineries and small refineries basically stopped production, and resource supplies drastically decreased. Price increases are inevitable.

So, will oil prices have a direct impact on car users? Sun Jian believes that the key to see two factors, first, the habit of travel (does not drive tens of kilometers a day), and the second is to see the level of income (the cost of the car's total proportion of total income). Only when these two factors are greatly changed will there be a direct impact on car consumption.

“In the capital, models with displacements above 1.3L are still preferred by consumers. The Chinese do not like to buy small cars, even if the future oil prices will continue to rise.” Beijing’s largest auto trading center Beijing Beichen Asian Games Village Automobile Center General Manager Su Hui told the author. It is clear that the awareness of the oil crisis in China's auto users is not as profound as that of American consumers.

According to the prediction of the authoritative energy agency, the contradiction between energy supply and demand in China, which has become the world’s second largest oil importing country, will become increasingly prominent. It is estimated that by 2020, China’s oil consumption will be at least 500 million tons, and import demand will reach 300 million tons. According to the analysis of relevant researchers, to bridge the gap between domestic and international oil prices, domestic refined oil prices still have room for price increases of 1,500 to 2,000 yuan per ton. This is only the forecast in early November last year. The current international oil price has risen by more than 10 percentage points from the current US$90. Whether it is willing or not, the rise in domestic oil prices has become a recognized trend in all walks of life.

The solution

Guoxin Junan automotive analyst Zhang Xin believes that the increase in oil prices will bring about two major changes in the automotive industry. First of all, the cost of construction vehicles will increase. Many materials involve petrochemicals, such as rubber for tires and chemical fiber for decoration, and then they will extend to lubricants and energy for processing equipment. Secondly, the cost of use will increase.

To solve this problem, experts believe that price levers can be used to adjust using taxation methods. The experience of the United States, Japan and other countries shows that the fuel tax has a significant effect on fuel economy. During the "two sessions," representatives from enterprises and experts unanimously appealed that the fuel tax should be introduced as soon as possible.

Yin Jiaxu, deputy to the National People's Congress, president of China Southern Industrial Automobile Co., Ltd. and general manager of Chang'an Automobile Co., Ltd. proposed on this year’s “two sessions” that the country should introduce a fuel tax as soon as possible, and at the same time give small cars more production and consumption in terms of taxes and levies. Many benefits, so as to achieve energy-saving emission reduction, the establishment of a conservation-oriented society.

Jia Xinguang, a senior analyst at China Automobile Group, believes that after the introduction of the fuel tax, more oil is used and more taxes are paid, which not only embodies the principle of reasonable burden of paying more for the road, but also encourages taxpayers to purchase small displacements in the system. Vehicles with low fuel consumption have prompted taxpayers to save fuel and to a certain extent have curbed excessive fuel consumption.

In addition to timely introduction of fuel tax on taxation, it can play a role in saving resources to a certain extent. In addition, the development of new energy vehicles has also been pushed to the cusp.

According to the official statement of the National Development and Reform Commission, new energy vehicles mainly include hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles (BEV, including solar cars), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), hydrogen engine cars, and other new energy sources (such as high-efficiency energy storage devices, two Methyl ether) cars etc. Of course, most of these new energy vehicles are still in the research or experimental stage. Only hybrid vehicles are first commercialized under the promotion of Toyota, Honda, and other companies. What kind of new energy vehicles is the ultimate solution for human mobility in the future has not yet been finalized. Therefore, some people in China say that new energy vehicles are the only opportunity for the Chinese auto industry to be on the same starting line with foreign giants.

Obviously, new energy vehicles are still in their infancy in China. FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Geely, BYD, Chang'an, and Chery are all stepping up research and development, and some have made breakthroughs, but compared with foreign auto giants, There is a big gap. Starting from China's national conditions, the country should become the main body responsible for the research and development of new energy vehicles.