The automotive industry will enter the profitable track. The profit decline will narrow from month to month.

Oriental News, August 5: According to the recent positive changes in auto companies, in the second half of the year, the situation that plagued China's auto industry “increasing production but not increasing revenue” will be changed, and the performance of auto companies will shift from “increasing profits without increasing profits” to “ The amount of profits will also increase."

The decline in profits narrowed month by month

As of press release, the economic benefits of the industry from January to June have not yet been announced, but according to the statistics from January to May of the China Automotive Industry Association, the decline in the vast majority of industrial economic benefits has narrowed, and the economic efficiency of the industry has improved further.

Statistics show that from January to May, the main industry business income of industrial enterprises above designated size in the auto industry was 1.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.53% over the same period of the previous year, and a profit of 60.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and profits and taxes of 111.31 billion yuan. The year-on-year decrease was 4.26%. According to the preliminary economic indicators of the 13,541 large-scale enterprises in the national auto industry from January to May, the decline of most economic indicators was reduced compared with January-February, and the output index changed from negative to positive growth in January-February, total profits and taxes. The decline has narrowed sharply, but the decline in export delivery values ​​has increased.

From January to May, 19 key enterprise groups realized operating revenue of 0.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%, a decrease of 8.45 percentage points from January to April. From January to March, when the profit of key corporate groups dropped by 38%, a decrease of 28% in January-April, and a decrease of 9.94% in January-May, the profit for January-June is expected to increase positively. According to statistics, the profits of the auto industry have already seen a month-on-month improvement. From May to March, the growth rate of the auto industry's profits has returned to a positive growth of 5%, and the gross profit margin has also returned to the level of 2007 and 2008.

Passenger commercial wing fly

Most people in the industry also affirmed the profit recovery of the auto industry. In particular, the comprehensive recovery of passenger cars, car sales from the first quarter of "small exhaust blowout, the high-end weak" structural recovery, to the second quarter of "all subdivision models are improving" a full recovery, high profitability of the high-end Car sales are picking up. The sales of passenger cars have increased significantly year-on-year for the third consecutive month. Terminal sales are expected to reflect the profitability of the industry and the second half of the year will lead to a profitable track.

In the first half of this year, commercial vehicles began to warm up as small-displacement vehicles pulled passenger cars higher. In June of this year, sales of commercial vehicles were 262,200, an increase of 8.34% year-on-year again. It is expected that the heavy-duty truck industry in the second half of the year will benefit from the recovery of the logistics industry and investment promotion. It is expected that the heavy-duty card industry will go out of the trend of high growth and low growth. The profit margin will show a significant increase from the previous month and it is worth looking forward to. By then, related companies will exhibit higher profitability flexibility. It is expected that the “overdraft” consumption of light trucks and micro-cards will be reflected in the next half year, while the passenger car industry will usher in policy-driven sales, and the sales volume will achieve a sequential increase. The profits of the industry chain companies will also reach a peak in the second half of 2009.

The three models that contributed the most to the increase in car sales in the first quarter were crossover passenger cars, trucks and cars. The growth of the main model sedan mainly comes from the growth of small-displacement vehicles of 1.6L and below, and the profit of bicycles in these models is low. In April and May, the sales volume of medium and high-grade passenger cars with 1.6L-2.5L displacement increased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, of which the sales of cars with 2.0-2.5L displacement in May increased by 22.30% year-on-year. The recovery of mid-to-high-end cars and luxury cars with strong profitability has improved the profitability of the corporate sector and has led to “increased output and increased revenue.”

According to the current trend of the automotive industry, it is expected that the annual production and sales of automobiles will be expected to exceed 11 million in 2009, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year; passenger vehicles will remain high for the next six months of this year, commercial vehicles will show a recovery, and industry profits will reverse year-on-year. The decline trend is expected to have a 5% increase over the same period last year.

Parts return to rise

The recovery of the vehicle industry will inevitably drive the continuous recovery and strengthening of the parts and components industry. It is expected that the related accessories industry will return to the rising cycle in the second half of 2009.

Recently, with the vehicle companies responding, listed auto parts companies have gone beyond the broader market. More than 80% of the company's share price has doubled from the beginning of the year, with nearly 90% of the companies outperforming the broader market.

At the same time, as of July 22, there were 11 auto parts companies that released their first-half performance forecasts. The notice shows that despite the fact that the company's performance in the first half year-on-year decline is still the majority, the year-on-year decline has been significantly lower than in the first quarter. A careful analysis of the ring comparison data shows that auto parts companies have improved their profitability in the second quarter, and all seven auto parts companies that reported that their first-half year-over-year results have fallen or lost money have achieved a reduction in losses in the second quarter. This means that auto parts companies have increased their share prices in the first half of the year and have solid performance support. Parts companies are accelerating their losses, and there is little doubt about the growth in the second half of the year.

The second-quarter performance of auto parts companies is in line with the rhythm of sales in the auto market. As the domestic listed parts and components companies mainly provide medium-to-high-end passenger vehicles, the gradual recovery of mid-to-high grade passenger vehicles from April will significantly increase orders for parts and components suppliers, thereby increasing their revenue and profits.

At present, the profit growth of auto parts companies has entered a healthy orbit. Under normal circumstances, when the auto industry is in the doldrums, the auto parts industry is under “two pressures.” In the recovery phase of the auto industry, due to the recovery of downstream demand, the steady operation of the entire vehicle price and the low level operation of upstream raw materials, parts and components Both the company’s production capacity and gross profit have recovered, thereby boosting its profitability.