Norwegian experience shows that China's new energy automotive industry may be depressed for a long time

Now, many countries’ governments are strongly advocating consumers to purchase electric-driven "new energy vehicles." The Chinese government has also significantly increased policy support in recent years. However, for consumers, the purchase of new energy vehicles has two major problems: First, charging, maintenance and many other supporting services are interrupted; but consumers are not practical in the process of driving the car, but do not dare to travel far, lest it be “halted” in half. Road. Because of this, the production and consumption of new energy vehicles are in an "impasse". Then, what is the future of China's new energy vehicle market?

Let's take a look at Norway, a small Nordic country in the “New Energy Vehicle Kingdom”.

Norway is a small country in northern Europe. The total number of nationals is only 5.1 million. Such a small country has become the country with the highest per capita electric car ownership in the world today. As of March 2015, the total number of registered electric and plug-in hybrids in Norway exceeded 52,000, with an average of 97 people owning an electric vehicle. In recent years, Norway’s electric vehicle sales and market share have increased at a rate of nearly 100% per year. In 2015, the average market share of electric vehicles accounted for 22.3%, pure electric vehicles accounted for 17.1%, and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 5.2%. Of course, sales volume for each month of the year shows a significant growth trend.

The Norwegian sedan market has now become an arena for several major electric vehicle brands in the world. The market leader for pure electric vehicles in Norway is Volkswagen's e-Golf, which accounts for 34.7% of the total. Tesla's ModelS sales ranked second in sales of pure electric vehicles in Norway. The third place is Nissan's LEAF model.

The sales of electric vehicles in Norway are so prosperous that it is not Norwegian consumers' awareness of environmental protection that exceeds that of other countries. It is mainly due to the Norwegian government’s “special policies and control strategies”.

First, the government attaches importance to the "top-level design" of technology and management and implements a strict "control and control" strategy. The government authority of Norwegian electric vehicles is the Norwegian Ministry of Transport, which is responsible for the development of an overall plan for the development of electric vehicles and the management of relevant budgets. Transnova, established in 2009, is responsible for the specific promotion of electric vehicles, infrastructure construction and data statistics, and supports and promotes relevant organizations in the country to participate in international electric vehicle research projects. The Bureau cooperates with The Research Council of Norway and Innovation Norway to provide financial support for research projects and commercialization of electric vehicles. The Norwegian Highways Authority operates a dynamic database of electric vehicle models that covers the technical parameters, configuration, sales prices and dealer information of all commercially available vehicles. Each local government is responsible for the development planning and policy formulation of electric vehicles within its jurisdiction.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the fundamental purpose of the Norwegian government’s development of electric vehicles. Since 1990, the Norwegian government began to levy carbon dioxide taxes on oil producers and consumers, and at the same time implemented a carbon emission reduction plan. It is committed to achieving a carbon reduction of 30% in 2020 compared to 1990 and a target of a carbon balance in 2030. In the transportation sector, the Norwegian government set emission reduction targets: by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions of motor vehicles will be reduced from 130 grams per kilometer in 2012 to 85 grams per kilometer. For this purpose, it is planned to sell 50,000 vehicles by 2020. Zero-emission vehicles have a market share of 2% of the total number of vehicles.

Second, the government gives great financial support and public support services. The Norwegian government has launched a series of incentives for the promotion of electric vehicles since the electric vehicle entered the market. These policies run through the purchase, use of electric vehicles, and the construction of supporting facilities (see the following table):

(1) On the fiscal side, first of all, the vehicle purchase tax was reduced. The Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association considers this to be the most important incentive policy. In fact, the government exempted the purchase tax (the vehicle purchase tax is quite high) and the value-added tax of 25%. In addition, tolls, ferry fees, and parking fees are free and can be charged free of charge at charging stations.

(2) Administratively, first of all, the investment in infrastructure is huge: There are 50,000 public charging piles and nearly 200 free charging stations in the country. Users can use the NOBIL platform to easily locate the charging station. The platform is developed and maintained by the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association and Transnova. In addition to these advantages, EVs can also use bus lanes to avoid congestion – congestion is often thought to be the result of the fact that infrastructure in post-socialist countries such as Russia has not been able to keep up with the explosion in the number of cars within a few decades.

Again, the industry organizations work together. Norwegian non-governmental organizations involved in electric vehicles include the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association, the “Green Car” organization, the “Zero Emissions” organization and the electric car rental organization. These non-governmental organizations play an important role in promoting the development of electric vehicles in Norway. Among them, the Norwegian Electricvehicle Association was established in 1995 and is a member of the European Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Association and the World Electric Vehicle Association. Through its portal website, the Electric Vehicle Association popularizes knowledge of electric vehicles, publishes industry development trends, and statistics on sales and use of electric vehicles. It provides consumers with electric vehicle purchase guides, detailed descriptions and actual reports of common models and their specific indicators in the market. And help consumers analyze the models that match their needs. In addition, the association also conducts various types of use surveys from time to time, and feeds survey results back to manufacturers, distributors, governments, and the general public.

However, the Norwegian government has paid a huge price for this, and the effect of “not getting the rewards” has become more and more obvious, causing many people to question. Focus on the following points:

1. The Norwegian government exempted the purchase tax (Vehicles purchase tax in Norway is quite high) and the value-added tax of 25%. It only exempted a tax concession and the Norwegian government would bear a burden of 4 billion Norwegian kronor (about 3.2 billion renminbi) each year.

2. According to calculations, under the current policy, the government needs to pay 6,800 kroons per one ton of carbon dioxide emitted by using electric vehicles, and the cost is much higher than other emission reduction measures.

3. Due to policy incentives, the number of electric vehicles has surged in recent years, and the growth rate of electric piles has been far below the growth of sales volume, which has led to insufficient supply of electric piles in some areas. In addition, some critics have said that Norway does not have a car industry, and so much of the subsidy is actually subsidizing the California economy (Tesla) and the Japanese automobile industry (Nissan).

4. Norway exempts electric vehicles from tolls, ferry fees, and parking fees. They can charge at the charging station for free, and they can also use bus lanes. According to research, 85% of Norwegian traffic through the bus lanes is electric vehicles, and bus drivers believe that electric vehicles have hampered public transport: the total time lost by bus passengers has far exceeded the time saved by electric vehicle users. It can be imagined that when the number of electric vehicles is relatively small, green travel and bus priority are not contradictory, but when the number of holdings increases substantially, the two do not converge well.

5. According to surveys, half of the consumers who buy electric cars in Norway are considering saving money, and less than 30% are for environmental protection. Environmentalists criticized that although the energy consumed by Norwegian electric vehicles comes almost entirely from hydropower, the raw materials consumed by these clean energy vehicles have not been reduced, but their exploitation process also destroys nature. Critics believe that it is the electric vehicle support policy that has caused the market to overheat.

In summary, despite the fact that the number of electric vehicles in Norway has exceeded 50,000 targets, the Norwegian government is facing pressure to adjust its policies. Some analysts pointed out that Norway’s policy on new energy vehicles is being reconsidered because, first of all, Norway does not have a car industry, and subsidies are not taken into consideration for the rise and fall of the country’s auto industry. In addition, Norway has abundant hydropower and wind power resources and can realize electric power. Green energy for cars.

The Enlightenment of Norwegian Experience to China

At this stage, China obviously does not have the advantage of Norway. Norway is still the case, and China’s national conditions and financial resources are obviously incomparable with it. Therefore, we can preliminarily determine that: China's many tangible and intangible difficulties determine that in the long term, the pace of developing new energy vehicles will not be rapid; the new energy automobile industry may fall into a "long downturn"; the National Development and Reform Commission, etc. Some decision-making of related departments should face up to China’s national conditions, and should not introduce policies that “benefit the seedlings to encourage growth and gain more than gain”. If the country is to promote the healthy development of the new energy automobile industry, it is recommended that a small- and medium-sized city with a more developed economy and a better geographical environment be selected for experimentation. The experimental period must not be less than 5 years.

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