New energy automotive industry rapid integration of many problems in the battery needs to be solved

Although the new energy automobile industry has been promoted for several years, compared to public opinion, the actual development situation has always been "the thunder is loud and the raindrops are small". The traditional vehicle companies lack the actual passion, and the new brand lacks funds and technology. stand by.

With the official introduction of the “double-integration” policy in September 2017, public opinion generally believes that 2018 will be a year for the new energy automotive industry to take off. The reason is simple. Whether it is a vehicle manufacturer or a consumer, the new energy industry has already With a certain degree of understanding and understanding, the integration of upstream and downstream supporting companies has also been accumulated for several years.

In fact, the new energy industry has changed from a niche market that has not been favored by the industry to a blue ocean area that has been increasingly valued by all parties, including multinational auto companies. Many new joint venture projects such as JAC Volkswagen, Zhongtai Ford are all for this purpose. produce.

As the core field of development of the new energy automotive industry, power batteries have always been the focus of widespread attention. How will China's power battery industry develop in the future?

Subsidy-induced blowouts

As the new energy auto industry is regarded as a major strategy, corresponding incentive policies have also been introduced, starting with the “Notice on Developing Private Subsidy for New Energy Vehicle Subsidies” in 2010, and encouraging the development of the new energy auto industry. Policies are endless.

Different stages of development will have different measures. The early stage will be mainly fund subsidies and policy orientation, mainly encouraging and positively encouraging consumers to purchase, and shifting the upstream and downstream industrial chains to new energy sources. These measures are very effective in the early stages of the development of the industry, but they are not sustainable.

With the gradual increase in the number of new energy automotive industry, the financial burden will become increasingly heavier.

At the same time, at the end of 2014, in the absence of major breakthroughs in electric vehicle technology, the number of domestic enterprises that have announced that they have entered or have entered the field of electric vehicles has far exceeded that of Japan, which was first engaged in research and development of new energy vehicles.

The reason why some companies do not have the ability to engage in new energy research and development is so positive is to get subsidies from the state and local governments. In 2015, fraudulent activities were discovered in succession. Some of the OEM employees resigned to a remote prefecture-level city that is not conducive to the development of the entire vehicle company as an electric vehicle modification company. One vehicle can defraud more than 70,000 yuan of national and local subsidies. Some dozens of small businesses can earn several hundred million yuan a year.

As a result, the industry has become concerned about the effectiveness and significance of new energy subsidies, and new energy subsidies have also been adjusted accordingly. Accelerating the decline has also become the consensus of all parties. Although the current 2018 new energy subsidy policy has not yet been introduced, but according to the circulated draft can be found in 2018, new energy vehicle subsidies will accelerate the decline, one of the important point is that the new energy car cruising mileage less than 150 kilometers of products The subsidy or will be zero.

Public opinion believes that this will have a huge impact on the new energy industry. In particular, in 2017, the mini-electric vehicle with unlimited features will have a severe sales in the first half of 2018.

According to the current public statistics, sales of miniature electric vehicles in 2017 accounted for 65% of the entire new energy passenger vehicle market. In the first 11 months, Beiqi EC Series and Zhidou D2 won the championship and runner-up sales in the segment market, the Beiqi EC Series 64,910, and the Zhidou D2 cumulative sales volume of 41,155 vehicles.

The cruising range of these two types of vehicles is 162km and 155km, respectively. If calculated according to the new 2018 standard, the “national compensation + ground compensation” obtained in 2018 will be reduced from 5.4 million yuan this year to 30,000 yuan, that is, In the original terminal price of 100,000 yuan, it needs to be raised to 124,000 yuan. If the company does not adopt the corresponding price strategy adjustment, the electric vehicle sales cliff-type diving can be foreseen.

In this regard, Zhu Guangyan, chief designer of Chery’s New Energy Battery System Department, told reporters that the declining slope is an inevitable trend at present, and it is not necessarily a bad thing. At present, the development of electric vehicles is still more dependent on the country's policies and subsidies, blindly highlighting the mileage and energy density, resulting in a lot of things may be covered up. After the subsidy retreats, what really competes is strength and technology. When the company is not only targeting subsidies to do things, it may adopt a more cost-effective and safe solution.

Industry rapid integration

Under the incentives of large-scale subsidies before this, not only companies that have entered the electric vehicle manufacturing industry have sprung up, but companies that include upstream and downstream facilities are also blooming all over the place. The reasons are similar to those of fraudulent subsidies.

Prior to this, the subsidy for new energy vehicles was large and loose. There were subsidies in many aspects of automobile production. The policies were issued by multiple departments and there was no effective supervision. As a result, some companies can produce cars that can make profits, and produce a lot of raw ones. Some companies make fake sales, build factories, set up car rental companies, simply assemble “produce” electric cars, defraud subsidies, and then resell them to themselves. The controlling leasing company then removes the battery for recycling, and thus repeatedly defrauds.

However, after the fraudulent activities were exposed by the media, new energy fraudulent activities were effectively stopped, and the new energy auto industry gradually returned to normal. According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in November 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were completed by 122,000 and 119,000 vehicles, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 70.1% and 83% respectively. From January to November, cumulative production and sales completed 639,000 and 609,000 respectively. Vehicle. The industry predicts that by the end of 2017, sales for the whole year of 2017 will achieve the “700,000” target planned at the beginning of the year.

Public opinion has previously generally believed that the core of new energy vehicles development is the urgent need for breakthroughs in power battery technology. After experiencing new energy swindling incidents, the development of power batteries has also become an area that the industry needs to re-examine.

Wu Feng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, explained to reporters: “To increase the mileage of electric vehicles requires high specific energy batteries. When pursuing high specific energy, heat will cause the car to burn and explode. This is how to improve the safety of the battery. Sexual problems: The problem of battery safety is not a single factor and should be based on a thorough understanding of the battery reaction mechanism and its accompanying side reactions in an application environment. The safety and reliability of lithium-ion batteries must be improved from multiple angles and systems. From the various materials, battery design, battery system safety technology to comprehensively resolve the landing."

In fact, the power battery industry faces more problems due to the rapid development of new energy.

The data shows that since 2017, under the dual pressures of upstream raw material prices and lower prices of downstream auto makers, power battery manufacturers have begun to encounter “winter”, and their recently released data highlights the difficulties facing this sector.

From January to November 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic new energy vehicles was only 25.23 GWh, and experts do not expect that it will exceed 35 GWh in 2017. According to third-party statistics, the domestic production capacity of power batteries in 2017 has exceeded 200 GWh.

Even based on previous calculations, by 2020, China's new energy vehicle production can achieve 2 million, and the demand for power lithium battery is only 170Gwh, so the current power battery production capacity is a serious surplus.

The imbalance in market supply and demand has led to the introduction of ancillary products into the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The number of power battery companies has fallen from more than 200 in 2016 to more than 90 at present.

Some insiders believe that the power battery industry is facing reshuffle, or that a large-scale reshuffle has already begun.

Fang Jianhua, former president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and executive partner and president of the New Energy Auto Venture Capital Sub-Fund of the National Science and Technology Achievements Conversion Fund, Fang Jianhua, told the media earlier that although the number has shrunk by more than half, it seems to have been a big adjustment in the outside world. According to Fang Jianhua, this is just the beginning of the adjustment, and the next knockout will be faster.

Many problems need to be solved

At the same time, while the power battery companies are rapidly being phased out, more and more vehicle companies have begun to select small and medium-sized power battery companies to support their own products for development, including new and innovative energy automotive brand companies that have also emerged in the spring. Corresponding to the scale of power battery business cooperation.

Some industry analysts pointed out that in the traditional automotive manufacturing supply chain, the OEMs supply the same component with at least three suppliers. In the current field of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for 30%-50% of the total cost. For such a key component, OEMs also need more than three suppliers. At present, there are no more than five so-called power battery manufacturers in China.

Jiang Kecheng, senior manager of Dongguan Tafel Energy Technology, told reporters that the current high-quality power battery suppliers are not enough to choose. On the one hand, everyone will find that the production capacity seems to be surplus, but on the other hand, there are still dark horses in the industry. The reason for this contradiction is that the high-quality suppliers that are available for car manufacturers are still small, and the depots want to build a strong one. In the supply chain, he must develop such a supplier.

The resulting cycle, the power battery industry caused by a short period of time is difficult to form a polymerization effect, the scale seems to be overcapacity, but the overall high-quality, high-quality companies and products are not many.

It is precisely because of the above-mentioned thinking that they are responsible for their own development and their respective development that the power battery industry cannot form fuel standards such as 92# and 95# which are unified across the country as in the traditional fuel vehicle industry.

Zhao Xiaoyong, managing director of the Beijing Seidemie Resource Recycling Research Institute Co., Ltd., told reporters that in 2017, the national standard for the size of the power battery has been introduced. After two years of gaming, more than 500 kinds of declarations were applied and there are still more than 100. In this case, the size of the battery is still too much, resulting in many problems encountered from the start of production of the battery to the use of the battery, and the yield rate is also difficult to increase.

Although relying on the development in the field of logistics and commercial applications, new energy vehicles have achieved notable progress in 2017, but how will the development situation after entering the passenger vehicle field in the end, especially the trend of the market performance after subsidy withdrawal, the power battery industry? Whether it will be described by industry experts as "the power battery industry will repeat the mistakes of the photovoltaic industry," this year will be a crucial year to see.