Forecast: Automotive retail sales will improve around 6% year-on-year

April 01, 2023

The year-on-year sales growth in June declined. In June, car sales were 1,577,500 vehicles, a decrease of 1.66% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 9.86%. Since April, the annualized sales volume of automobiles has fluctuated widely, reaching as low as 18.52 million units in April and rising to 20 million units in May, and dropping back to 19.4 million units in June. The fluctuation of wholesale sales is mainly due to the control of the sales rhythm of manufacturers rather than the actual retail sales.

The gross profit margin of key enterprises remained high. The gross profit rate of key enterprises in May was 20.78%, which has remained at around 20% this year, which is higher than the overall level since 2009. The increase in gross profit margin is related to the change in product structure. The pre-tax profit margin in May was 8.09%, a slight decrease from the overall level in the previous two years.

Heavy truck sales are stable at low levels. In June, the sales volume of medium-duty trucks was 70,900 units, a decrease of 11.28% from the previous period and a decrease of 19.72% year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed. Among them, annual sales of heavy trucks in June amounted to 541,000 vehicles, which was in line with the April-May period and remained at a low level of stability.

The vehicle exports hit a record high. In May, the total vehicle export volume was 94,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.82%, a year-on-year increase of 41.04%, a record high. The export value of parts and components was US$5.081 billion, an increase of 12.59% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 21.85%.

Investment strategy: Retail sales are expected to improve in the short term and dealers may have a breathing space. Maintain the forecast of sales volume growth of 6% for the full year in 2012, consider the trend of the industry trend and valuation, and maintain the industry's “synchronous market” rating. It is recommended to pay attention to related companies with technological advantages and product advantages, focusing on listed companies such as Changan Automobile and SAIC.

Risk warnings: (1) policy adjustments; (2) sales exceeding expectations; (3) sharp fluctuations in the prices of automobiles and raw materials; and (4) increasing protectionism in overseas markets.

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Author:

Mr. Liu Keda

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syzdhx@163.com

Phone/WhatsApp:

+8613904003748