China or long-term become the world's largest automotive market

Xu Changming, director and senior analyst of the Information Resource Department of the State Information Center, said in Jinan recently that China is likely to become the world’s largest auto market for a long time.

Xu Changming said that in 2010, China's auto market will maintain its long-term potential rapid growth (15%). However, considering that there are still unreleased factors in the revitalization policy in 2009, the growth rate of domestic demand for passenger vehicles this year will be slightly higher than the long-term potential growth rate, which is expected to be around 20%.

"Last year and the first half of last year, there were obvious phase characteristics. In the first half of the year, it was policy-driven. In the second half of the year, it was driven by policies and economics." Xu Changming said that in 2009 China's total demand for cars appeared in the second blowout and it became a global one. The first largest auto market has benefited from the intensive introduction of consumption encouragement policies. On the other hand, China's auto market has just entered a second period of high-speed growth, and the development stage determines a relatively large rigid demand.

In the medium to long term, Xu Changming believes that by 2020, China's commercial vehicles will maintain a long-term growth rate of about 9%, slightly lower than the average growth rate of 1998-2008. In terms of passenger vehicles, the market is still in a period of rapid development before 2020. The growth rate is equivalent to about 1.5 times GDP growth rate and maintains a normal growth rate of 13%-15%. In the next 10 years, China's R value (the mid- and long-term development trend of a country's passenger vehicle market is determined by R value, R is the ratio of vehicle price to GDP per capita, and when the R value reaches 2-3, the automobile penetration rate will increase rapidly) Convert to a point near 3, thus providing a guarantee for a large number of cars entering the home. "2009 is the starting point for the second high-speed growth period. It is conservatively estimated that the saturation point of China's total automobile demand will be at least 30 million for one year and 450 million vehicles."