China's automotive aluminum profiles will exceed 500,000 tons by 2015

Compared with developed countries, China’s aluminum consumption per capita is still relatively low. With the further increase of China’s urbanization rate and the continual deepening of consumption and industrial upgrading during the transformation of economic structure, the endogenous growth potential of aluminum consumption in China is still very broad. Higher oil prices and higher ratios of copper to aluminum have created a positive external environment for the replacement, popularization, and promotion of aluminum, and are also expected to become catalysts for improving aluminum performance. However, the abundant aluminum resources make it impossible to use resources for the industrialization of aluminum. bottleneck.

From the macroscopic aspect of economic growth, the meso-perspective of the industry evolution, and the micro-behavior of corporate development, we all find that the current aluminum industry from the primary electrolytic aluminum smelting into deep processing will become an inevitable trend. Aluminum processing products are generally priced in the form of “aluminum price + processing fee”. When there is a rapid increase in total downstream demand and structure, companies with technological advantages, channel advantages, cost advantages, and locational advantages will not only have processing fees. It can be guaranteed, and there is also the possibility of improvement. If the expansion of capacity expansion factors is superimposed, the growth of performance will be rapid and significant.

In 2010, the demand for automotive alloy foil in China exceeded 186,000 tons. We forecast that the demand in 2011-12 will be 24.6 and 308,000 tons/year respectively, and the compound growth rate will be about 23% in 2010-12. In the medium term, we believe that with the shift of the entire automobile and automotive parts industry to China, the future of domestic automotive alloy foil manufacturers will face the global market. Under the neutral assumption, the global automotive alloy foil demand in 2012 was 889,400 tons, and the compound growth rate in 2011-12 was 10%.

While aluminum electrolytic capacitors are growing rapidly in the traditional consumer electronics field, their applications in variable frequency motors, energy-saving lamps, wind power, and electric vehicles are also expanding. Under the neutral assumption, based on the simple calculation of the market size of China's inverter, we believe that in 2012, the demand for electrode foil in China is expected to reach 49,800 tons, and the compound growth rate of electrode foil demand in China in the next three years will be 26.7%.

According to our research, the consumption of aluminum profiles for high-speed trains will increase from 10,100 tons in 2009 to 46,300 tons in 2012, with a compound growth rate of 66.1%; the consumption of aluminum profiles in the metro train market will increase from 2009 From 0.86 million tons to 20,400 tons in 2012, the compound growth rate was 33.4%. Under the neutral assumption, the annual compound growth rate of the automotive aluminum market will remain at around 21% from 2010 to 2015, and the market scale will reach 2015. More than 500,000 tons.