Automotive industry: High-end sales structure to improve corporate profitability

In the first half of the year, the automobile production and sales reached a record high In June, 1.1531 million vehicles were produced, an increase of 4.18% from the previous quarter and an increase of 37.73% year-on-year. Car sales were 1,142,100, up by 2.0% from the previous quarter and up by 36.48% year-on-year.
In June, the cumulative sales of automobiles reached 6.988 million, an increase of 17.69% year-on-year. Although sales in June were slightly lower than in April, due to car sales in May and June were significantly higher than those in 2008, the accumulated sales volume increased rapidly year-on-year. We believe that the production and sales of automobiles are booming in the first half of the year, indicating that the revitalization plans for the various automobile industries, such as the reduction of purchase tax, cancellation of road maintenance fees, and government subsidies, have begun to take effect and the demand for automobiles has been released.
The growth trend of medium and high displacement passenger cars is obvious. Affected by purchase tax and consumption tax (hereinafter referred to as “two taxes”), the sales volume of passenger cars with 1.6-liter or lower displacement increased significantly from January to March, and the sales volume of 1.6-liter displacement models was somewhat inhibited. Since April, the impact of the two taxes has gradually weakened, and sales of 1.6-liter displacement models have gradually recovered. This trend was further established in June, especially in the passenger car sales from 2 liters to 2.5 liters. We believe that the market crowding of medium- and high-displacement passenger cars with small-displacement passenger vehicles will continue in the future, but the trend will slow down, and it is expected that the proportion of basic passenger cars with the following displacement of 1.6 liters will fluctuate around 70%.
The year-on-year decline in heavy trucks gradually narrowed and the growth in the second half of the year was clear. The accumulated sales of trucks in the previous six months increased 1.73% year-on-year. In addition to the heavy trucks, all medium-duty trucks, light trucks, and mini-cards also increased year-on-year, with the largest increase in microcards, which was 41.83%. The accumulated sales volume of heavy trucks fell by 27.71% year-on-year, and the decline rate gradually narrowed. With the further implementation of the national infrastructure projects and the gradual implementation of the country’s policy of encouraging heavy truck consumption, the sales of heavy trucks will gradually emerge from the predicament, and the profit of related listed companies will also show a recovery growth. The comparable base for heavy trucks in the second half of 2008 is relatively low. It is expected that from July onwards, the year-on-year growth of heavy truck sales will see a large increase. In addition, with the higher crude oil prices, the heavy truck fuel economy will become more obvious. If the economic recovery is better than expected in the future, demand for heavy trucks will be even stronger.
It is expected that the adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices will occur frequently. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on reducing oil prices on the 28th. Announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 220 yuan per ton from the midnight on the 29th. The NDRC's adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices was issued in the context of the continuous decline in international crude oil prices in July. Since the beginning of the year, the price of oil has undergone five adjustments, including two reductions and three increases. The country's current adjustment of oil prices is not high, so it has little effect on the cost of motor oil. However, since 2009, the increase in oil prices has exceeded the rate of decline. As a result, the cost of accumulating automotive oil has increased, and the demand for auto consumption has shifted to fuel-efficient vehicles. The state frequently adjusts the price of gasoline and diesel according to crude oil prices. In the future, with the fluctuation of oil prices, this adjustment is expected to exist.