The merger and reorganization of the automotive industry can not be the only heroes on sales

As for the restructuring of the auto industry, mergers and reorganizations are not new topics. However, what are the actual results?

Before judging this, we must first of all make sure that the adjustment of an industry's structure is based on the number of companies or the profitability of the industry.

If it is only for the purpose of regulating quantity and making superficial articles, then the merger and reorganization of "Lang-Lang-style" will surely achieve changes in the number of enterprises, and even be a "very effective" trick for reducing loss-making enterprises. Imagine combining two loss-making companies into one, not reducing a loss-making company. If you can “plug” a loss-making company into a profitable company, you can also achieve a “miracle” to eliminate losses. However, if it is to focus on the benefits of the industry and enterprises, it is to adopt the “scientific outlook on development” attitude to deal with the restructuring of the industry and mergers and reorganizations, then you need to do a lot of practical work, and not to achieve remarkable results in the short term. The adjustment of the structure of any industry/industry must not be eager for quick success, expecting the introduction of a policy to be immediate.

For example, in order to integrate the resources of the State-owned SASAC's automobile manufacturing, China Changan Automobile Group has completed the so-called “Haifei”, “Changhe” and “Dongan” power companies under the former AVIC Corporation through equity transfer and swap. The "merger and reorganization" was the second time that China Changan ranked the second in the automotive industry in terms of output and sales volume, surpassing Dongfeng Motor Group in one fell swoop. However, after several years of hard work, not only did it not become stronger, but because of the heavy burden of the burden, it dragged down the pace of development in China's Chang'an, and it has now fallen to fourth in terms of production and sales. Therefore, this kind of "Lang Lang-style" merger and reorganization is not worth mentioning.

The reason why this kind of situation occurs is that China currently lacks bankruptcy in the true sense of the word, and that the relevant managers are keen to “bigger” industries/industries and will only do “addition”, and are unwilling to do “subtraction” is the most fundamental reason. . Coupled with the advance and failure, the management model of suffering and suffering is still able to cover all sectors of the industry/industry at the stage of growth. However, once the industry/industry has entered a stable stage of development and even decline, many problems will be exposed and erupted. Therefore, China If the auto industry does not have a real, "subtractive" nature of mergers and reorganizations, it will never be able to achieve the "strengthened" strategic goal.

Of course, the Chinese auto industry still has very few cases of successful mergers and acquisitions. For example, at the end of 2007, SAIC Motor Corporation under the care and guidance of the then Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping and then Jiangsu Party Secretary Li Yuanchao, through the integration of Jiangsu Nanjing Automobile Group, while realizing the merger and reorganization of enterprises across provinces and cities, Makes the short board of their commercial vehicles longer and the product chain has been enriched. Through the unification of “Unified Planning, Unified R&D, Unified Purchasing, Unified Manufacturing, and Unified Marketing”, SAIC and NAC truly complement each other and share resources. Unfortunately, the successful case of the Chinese auto industry is rare.

Looking at the Chinese auto industry, we can see from the country's auto industry policy in each period, whether it is the early development of “three major three small” or the subsequent support of “eight major leaders, the top ten in the industry”, each time it is referred to The structure of the automotive industry is adjusted and is carried out through mergers and reorganizations. However, the latest statistics still show that there are still more than 340 vehicle manufacturers in the automotive industry. Some media even blamed the Chinese auto industry for failing to achieve mergers and reorganization under local protection.

Let’s not talk about local mergers and reorganizations for the time being. From the perspective of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the company currently owns three automobile manufacturing groups, namely FAW, Dongfeng and Chang’an. Can it be a demonstration for the national auto industry and integrate three central enterprises into one? Or two? It is almost impossible to see at present. For the local auto industry, even if it is a car company in a different region in the same province, it does not involve mergers and acquisitions if it is to achieve unity, it is extremely difficult. Typical examples are Jianghuai Automobile and Chery Automobile in Anhui Province. Although the relevant leaders in the province always want to promote the combination of the two, they have not been able to integrate together for various reasons, which in turn has led to the “dream” of large cars in Anhui Province. . Because in China, Ning as the "chicken head" does not do "Pendo" thought is deeply ingrained, this is probably the State Development and Reform Commission Industry Coordinating Division responsible person feels, "From the current point of view, cross-sectoral, trans-regional, cross-ownership There are major difficulties in corporate mergers and acquisitions. "In the process of mergers and reorganizations, it is necessary to properly handle the relationships between the central government, local governments, and enterprises." It can be seen that it is difficult for China's auto industry mergers and reorganizations to achieve breakthroughs and is not "local protection". Simple questions, do not blame the contradictions on the local level!

In addition, when implementing the relevant policies of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, how to define “lagging companies” is also crucial. When we develop the automobile industry, are we pursuing so-called "advanced" blindly or aiming for "applicability" under certain advanced nature? The outcome will be very different. If you blindly pursue the so-called advancement, the self-owned brand cars that are at a relative disadvantage will lose their last place in the huge domestic market. On the contrary, the "advanced and applicable" car products will not only ensure car consumption. The use of those who can also meet the status of independent brands as a pillar industry.

Therefore, if only judging from the production and sales volume of enterprises, it seems that many enterprises need to “close and stop”. In the words of the relevant leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is said that “a group of companies have been in production or semi-discontinued for many years, with little or no output, and it is very difficult to survive.”

However, in the development of the automotive industry, some companies take the "scale" road, while some companies choose the direction of "premium." For example, the annual output of Yutong Bus is less than 50,000, which is a few orders of magnitude worse than that of the Big Five. However, we cannot say that it is not the “leading” of the automotive market segment; 200,000 heavy trucks are also far away from the million, but they are also the best in the industry. Therefore, whether a car company can survive and whether it should continue, the parties will naturally make a choice, which in fact does not need to worry about other people.

In today's market-oriented development, the number of companies that should be in an industry and whether companies should merge and restructure should not be the first thing the government should worry about. Mergers and reorganizations are only a means of industrial restructuring, and they must not be merged and reorganized for mergers and acquisitions. Just as everyone favors Peking University and Tsinghua University, we must not simply refer to all the universities in the country as the XX Academy of Peking University and the XX Academy of Tsinghua University. It would only be self-deception.

Even if the merger and reorganization of the automobile industry, if there is no institutional / institutional change, in the end it is actually only "separate and separate, combined points." For example, when the Jinbei passenger car in Shenyang was caught in a development dilemma, the state incorporated it into the ranks of FAW Group and changed its name to “FAW Gold Cup.” On the surface, it could not only reduce the car prices, but also achieved the so-called “win-win”. However, the actual outcome is that with the gradual improvement of the situation, after the company emerged from the predicament, local governments began to “difficulty” and eventually FAW Group was forced to transfer the majority of the shares held by it. Today's Brilliance Automotive. A reincarnation, the number of companies in the automotive industry did not really reduce. Either administrative intervention or economic instruments are good, and it seems that the merger and reorganization of the auto industry have failed to exert their due effects.

Take the automobile industry as an example. After so many years of development and adjustment, the number of production entrepreneurs has not seen a significant reduction. At first glance, it seems that there is no effective result. However, if we observe the industry's production concentration as an indicator, we find that At present, the top ten companies in the automotive industry have achieved a production and sales concentration of around 88%, and the target of 90% from the established target is very close. Therefore, for the top ten, and even many other car companies outside the top twenty, they can be allowed to fight freely in the sea of ​​market economy and fend for themselves. After all, the role of many companies in solving employment and stabilizing the society cannot be ignored. If elimination is to be implemented, there must also be a buffer and an excessive amount. Otherwise, simply “closing and stopping” will not only help solve employment problems, relieve social conflicts, but also shake the foundation of the entire socio-economic development.

At the same time, in the face of the current system, when the economic environment is good, the companies develop independently and are not related to each other. Even with the merger and reorganization mentality, it is impossible to carry out substantial mergers and reorganizations. When the economic environment drops, due to Afraid of backpacking, the dominant carmakers are now unable to carry out mergers and reorganizations. In addition, the Chinese people's actual mentality of "can be difficult, can not be rich together," the actual merger and reorganization of relevant companies in the "honeymoon period" after more into a "development dilemma" and ultimately lead to increased conflict between the two sides. Therefore, for industrial restructuring, mergers and reorganizations, the government can only play a “promoting role” and must not “actually operate”.

In fact, rather than paying too much attention to the merger and reorganization of the Chinese auto industry, it is better to pay more attention to the current entry policy for the auto industry. In the end of 2012, the joint venture project approved by the National Development and Reform Commission for Chery Automobile and Jaguar Land Rover will build a production base in Changshu, Jiangsu Province. How many automobile industry stock assets will be absorbed or utilized? If on the one hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires the automobile industry to carry out mergers and reorganizations to carry out structural adjustments, and on the other hand, the NDRC is also approving the construction of a brand-new production base. The long management model and the conflicting policy operations, the Chinese auto industry can only stay on "paper", and can only be a dream forever!