Slow economic recovery In 2014, the refrigerant industry will be full of difficulties and challenges

In recent years, the rapid growth of the domestic economy in emerging economies such as China and India has led to the rapid development of commercial, industrial and automotive industries, which has created a huge demand for refrigerants. 2013 is not a relaxing year for the refrigerant industry. From the perspective of the refrigerant industry, overcapacity and shrinking hcfc quotas will certainly bring changes to the market trend. It is expected that this will be a year full of difficulties and challenges.

There are many uncertainties in the market, and challenges and opportunities coexist. From the perspective of the international market, the US anti-dumping and countervailing investigations in December 2013 undoubtedly worsened the downturn in the refrigerant industry, and severely curbed the export of refrigerants to the US market. Although the two anti-surveys will be made before and after January 15, 2014 and March 31, 2014, the impact on the refrigerant market has begun to show. About 50 of China’s r134a are exported to Europe and the United States, of which the United States accounted for a relatively large amount. Therefore, once the US Shuang’an’s counter-insurance system is established, domestic companies will be adversely affected.

Judging from the domestic market, China's economy has entered a transitional transition period. The fluorine chemical industry is still in a sluggish state. When it gets warmer, it is unclear. Most people think that the low period will be extended and the market will still be in an adjustment stage.

From the perspective of industry development, the Montreal Protocol requires the elimination of traditional refrigerants, and the elimination of r22 will leave a huge market space. It is expected that the demand for hfcs products and their mixed working substances will increase significantly in the future, and it is expected to usher in greater opportunities for development.

The upstream raw materials continue to be controlled, and the supply and demand changes have risen. Fluorite is an important raw material for organic fluorine chemicals. The large fluctuations in the price of fluorite in recent years are related to factors such as the outbreak of short-term downstream demand and speculation, and are related to the large policy environment and the country’s gradual tightening of the development of fluorite mines.

According to the national policy guidance, it is estimated that in the future, the annual quota for domestic fluorite mining will be maintained at around 10 million tons in the future, equivalent to about 4 million tons of fluorite powder, and the current annual domestic demand for fluorite powder The amount reached 4.08 million tons. Since 2013, China has cancelled the original 15 fluorite temporary export tariffs. In 2014, exports still did not impose tariffs, and hydrofluoric acid was reduced from 15 to 10. It is clear that the cancellation of export tariffs and the supply of fluorspar mining quotas will inevitably bring about an increase in demand and prices.

Nowadays, environmental protection new refrigerants are becoming the future trend of market development. At present domestic air-conditioning companies have laid out environmentally-friendly refrigerants, and there are already 18 R290 air-conditioning production lines undergoing transformation. Some companies believe that the new environmental refrigerant is the general direction of the future, but the price will be higher and it will still need market verification.

Despite the positive layout, there is still a long way to go before the real replacement of new refrigerants is realized. Industry insiders also pointed out that it is more difficult to replace the market stock products than to replace them at the production end.